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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2021

SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

Résumé

The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged >80 y.o. after 4 weeks, indicating substantial porosity across ages. We derive from these patterns the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces morbi-mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those that contribute more to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups
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Dates et versions

hal-03468461 , version 1 (16-03-2021)
hal-03468461 , version 2 (15-10-2021)
hal-03468461 , version 3 (07-12-2021)

Licence

Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-03468461 , version 1

Citer

Cécile Tran Kiem, Paolo Bosetti, Juliette Paireau, Pascal Crepey, Henrik Salje, et al.. SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control. 2021. ⟨hal-03468461v1⟩
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